NOAA layoffs spark concerns over weather alert accuracy from East TN experts

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — Hundreds of weather forecasters and other federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) employees were recently fired under the Trump administration.

The Associated Press reported that Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was laying off about 10% of NOAA’s total workforce. Federal workers who were not let go said the layoffs included meteorologists who do crucial local forecasts in the National Weather Service (NWS) offices in the country.

The firings come amid efforts by Musk and DOGE to shrink a federal workforce that President Trump has called “bloated and sloppy,” according to AP.

Kelsey Ellis is an associate professor at the University of Tennessee in the Department of Geography and Sustainability. The department studies topics ranging from climate change to poverty and urban development. 

10News spoke with Ellis on the recent federal layoffs at NOAA/NWS and how it could affect the public. 

For years, the NWS has provided weather, water and climate forecasts and warnings for the U.S. by collecting and communicating the data to the public. The professor mentioned that the NWS has already been understaffed, which makes collecting the forecast data more challenging.

“When you remove more capacity within the weather service, you’re going to hurt one or multiple parts of that area where they serve the public to protect life and property,” Ellis said.

NOAA’s 301 billion weather forecasts every year reach 96% of American households and help inform many of the forecasts you see from your local meteorologist on the local news.

NWS offices across the country collect weather data from satellites, weather balloons, radar, citizen scientists and more to make sure the surrounding public is aware of incoming weather. 

There is an office in Morristown that collects data for East Tennessee counties, as well as parts of Virginia and North Carolina. 

Ellis pointed out that with the layoffs, having people forecasting from other locations will not know Knoxville or the East Tennessee counties as well as people in Morristown do, emphasizing the need to have local observations forecast the weather.

With the layoffs, the workload for NWS employees could increase. Ellis said the job is already “challenging and draining” and that they would have to work longer hours and more uncomfortable shifts, which could result in “potentially less useful forecasts, which is scary going into severe weather season.”

Using weather data from the NWS is critical for a viewer watching local news. 

“I think one important thing for the public to understand is, say you are using news stations or you are using some sort of social media weather forecaster, they’re all getting data from the National Weather Service and from NOAA, so weather forecasting as we know it cannot happen without these entities being funded,” Ellis said.

One of the most recent severe weather events that happened was a tornado in Morgan County. That event resulted in at least two deaths and dozens of businesses destroyed. While the NWS would usually report tornado warnings, it could impact how people receive warnings.

“The National Weather Service started recognizing and focusing on the fact that there’s certain groups that are less likely to receive their alerts or be able to respond to them and they’ve been working extra hours just to try to help improve that,” she said.  “You do research that is solely focused on trying to improve National Weather Service operations, but now we’re going to lose that as well. It’s a bummer. We’ve been seeing a lot of advancement in our understanding of how people like to receive and respond to tornado warnings and all of that’s going to slow down with reduced funding.”

The layoffs not only affect the viewing public, but it has had a mental strain on the forecasters as well. 

“I reached out to Morristown just saying I’m so sorry that they’re watching their friends across this industry be fired, and then their friends that are still there really struggle with operating in an office that’s understaffed and very stressed,” Ellis said.

As far as what the future of forecasting looks like, Ellis remains hopeful but worries about the possibility of a privately-owned forecast instead of it being owned by the government.

“If the privatization of weather forecasting were to happen, you will see a major shift in the field,” Ellis said. “Because when the government owns the weather forecast, it is charged with protecting everyone. But if you privatize it and people are paying for it, then the people who are already most vulnerable to these events won’t have access to the information that they need.”

Ellis believes the NWS has not yet reached the level of technological advancement needed to replace some forecasters, meaning other forms of technology, like AI, cannot fully lighten the workload.

The NWS collaborated with the Federal Emergency Management Agency in response to Hurricane Helene. The collaboration was part of an effort to address the severe flooding and damage that affected Tennessee and other southeastern states. 

During any hazardous weather event, NWS usually communicates with their partners to warn them as soon as possible and give a better understanding of the storm that could reach their region.

“With the reduced capacity for forecasting and communicating forecasts, you can imagine that our National Weather Service’s partners are probably going to get less information or less detailed information if someone is doing the work of two people instead of one,” she said. 

As for what Ellis wants the public to know: Meteorologists are dedicated people who take their work seriously, despite public misconceptions about their accuracy. While some may joke that forecasting is an easy job, the reality is that their work has consequences in severe weather situations.

“I think instead of looking at them as people that are sometimes wrong with this really complex atmosphere, support them as they try to protect everyone during severe weather season this year,” Ellis said.

NWS released the following statement on the federal layoffs:

“Per long-standing practice, we are not discussing internal personnel and management matters. NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation’s environmental and economic resilience. We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission.”