Who will be the next pope? Here are some of the contenders

Dust off the history books and there are papal conclaves with international intrigue, royal rigging and even riots, a checkered past that belies the air of sanctity and solemnity surrounding modern papal elections.

The word “conclave” comes from the Latin for “with key.” It is a church tradition that began in 1268 with a papal election that lasted almost three years, ending only when the townspeople of Viterbo locked up the cardinals, tore the roof off their palace, fed them nothing but bread and water and threatened them until a new pope was chosen.

While it is very unlikely the decision on Pope Francis’ successor will take quite as long or be quite as contentious, Vatican watchers agree that the winner is not a foregone conclusion.

Follow live coverage

“The great joy of the conclave is that nobody really knows and it’s such a unique electorate,” James Somerville-Meikle, the former deputy director of the Catholic Union of Great Britain, told NBC News before Francis’ death. “So many conclaves in the past have thrown up surprises.”

The College of Cardinals, he said, has always been faced with two questions: “Do we try something new? Do we go for continuity?”

NBC News takes a look at the figures believed to be the top contenders.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi

The fifth of six siblings, the Rome-born Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi, 69, has built a reputation as a peacemaker and has worked with the Community of Sant’Egidio, a Catholic lay association devoted to ecumenism and conflict resolution.

“That community had a very active role in peace-building activities and finding agreements in Africa, where they have been involved in South Sudan,” said NBC Vatican analyst Deborah Castellano Lubov. The east African nation has been ravaged by civil war, violence and famine since it gained independence from neighboring Sudan in March 2011.

Lubov added that Zuppi, the archbishop of Bologna, was one of four mediators who helped bring an end to the civil war in the east African country of Mozambique in 1982 and more recently had been Francis’ envoy for peace in Ukraine and Russia.

“He’s a very smart man, left of center, although ideologically speaking he is very close to the center of the church,” said Massimo Faggioli, a professor of theology and religious studies at Villanova University. “He would be a mix between John Paul II and Pope Francis on social issues and moral issues.”

Tim Gabrielli, the Gudorf chair in Catholic intellectual traditions at the University of Dayton in Ohio, agreed that Zuppi was “very close to Francis,” and that he is “very much a pastor figure, close to the people.”

But Gabrielli said Zuppi was “relative newcomer” when it comes to Italian episcopal politics and didn’t “necessarily have the breadth of Vatican experience that is often looked at.”

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

The second Italian on the list, Parolin, 70, has been Francis’ secretary of state since the pope chose him in 2013.

“He’s a diplomat, and this is something that the cardinals might like,” said Faggioli, although he added that as secretary of state “you have to make many decisions on behalf of the pope, and you have to make a number of enemies among other cardinals.”

Parolin, Faggioli said, is “a centrist, and he’s a man of the institution, a stabilizer.”

However, both Faggioli and Lubov agreed that Parolin’s chances could take a hit because he was the chief architect of an agreement with China on the appointment of Roman Catholic bishops in the communist country that gave the pope the final say.

Critics complained that it betrayed Catholics who remained loyal to the pope despite persecution, and some have said it prevented the Vatican from denouncing rights abuses in China. They also point to increasing restrictions on religious freedoms in China for Christians and other minorities.

Parolin would have a lot of explaining to do about China to remedy his reputation as a credible candidate when it comes to the future of the Catholic Church, Lubov said.

“There have been great human rights violations there, and he would really have to explain more effectively how it is possible to justify engaging with a place that violates human rights in the way that China has,” she said.

Cardinal Péter Erdő

The first of six children, Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő “circulates regularly in conservative blogs as one who would shift away from Francis,” according to Monsignor Kevin Irwin, a research professor at the Catholic University of America.

“A decided player for the conservative cardinals,” Irwin said via email, adding that Erdő, 72, now the archbishop of Budapest, is “a highly trained canon lawyer” who has written several erudite articles and books on the sources of canon law.

Faggioli at Villanova agreed Erdő was a strong candidate, one who was much more conservative and “a traditional Catholic when it comes to family, marriage, gay rights.”

Faggioli added that Erdő differed with Francis on the way the church should address immigration.

While Francis often called for compassion toward migrants, he said Erdő was “more Eastern European and questions the ability to assimilate.”

Gabrielli said Erdő reminds “some of us of John Paul II … [which] comes from the fact that they were both raised under communist rule.”

He is also similar to Francis’ predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, who “thought of Europe as key and the idea that Christianity of Europe was very important.”

Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle

Tagle, who has been dubbed the “Asian Pope Francis” by some, would be presenting himself as a close follower of the recently deceased pontiff, according to Somerville-Meikle of the Catholic Union of Great Britain.

Tagle, 67, a Filipino national who features his nickname “Chito” on his X profile, is known as a champion of the poor in the Philippines and has campaigned on many social issues in his homeland, Somerville-Meikle said.

“He’s incredibly articulate and would be very able to extend Pope Francis’ reflections theologically,” said Gabrielli, adding that Tagle has been adept at taking Francis’ ideas and running with them.

However, Gabrielli said that Tagle’s reputation took a bit of a hit when Francis ousted the management of the Vatican’s international charitable organization, Caritas Internationalis, after an external review found management and morale problems at its head office. 

Tagle, who had served as the organization’s president since May 2015, was among those relieved of their duties, despite having called for the review in the first place, Gabrielli said.

“There might be questions resulting from that about his ability to manage,” he added.

However, since June, Tagle has been in charge of the Dicastery for Evangelization, one of the church’s most important departments, and Gabrielli said he seemed to be doing “a good job there.”

Other contenders

Among the other candidates that might come up for consideration are the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, and Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, 77, the archbishop of Colombo in Sri Lanka.

The general secretary of the Synod of Bishops, the Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech, and Cardinal Charles Muang Bo of Burma, the archbishop of Yangon, may also be considered.

Cardinal Christoph Schönborn, the archbishop of Vienna, is also a “well respected” figure who understands the importance of governing an international archdiocese while maintaining a “moderate line between being open-minded to dialogue about the future of the church but also keeping close to the tradition of the Catholic faith,” NBC News’ Lubov said.

But at 80, “his days as a candidate are probably behind him,” Gabrielli said, although he added that Schönborn “befuddles people who try and label him as either conservative or liberal,” which might lead some to see him as a compromise candidate.

Age and experience may rule out Canadian Cardinal Gérald Lacroix, the archbishop of Quebec, because at 67, some may consider him too young, Faggioli said. “I expect they will look for a candidate in their 70s,” he added.

Gabrielli added that Lacroix was “a real pastor, people person. He’s not a corporate in-his-office type, which I think reminds people of Francis. He really prioritizes evangelization, but I wonder if he has the global scope that some cardinals will look for.”