Global corporate travel a casualty of Donald Trump’s war on trade

Optimism in the global business travel sector has dropped by more than half this year, according to a report published by the Global Business Travel Association.

Positive sentiment fell from 67 per cent in November 2024 to 31 per cent in April 2025, according to the report which surveyed more than 900 business travel professionals on the affect of tariffs, tightened border policies and other US government policies announced this year.

More than one in four respondents in Canada, the US and Europe said they felt “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic” about the industry outlook this year.

However, 40 per cent of those surveyed said they felt neither positive nor negative.

“Since I have been in my role for four years, I haven’t seen this high of a level of uncertainty,” Suzanne Neufang, the association’s CEO, said.

The survey showed nearly 30 per cent of business travel buyers anticipate their companies will reduce employee trips this year, while some 20 per cent said they weren’t sure, it showed.

“They’re not even confident enough to be able to say things will be fine or things won’t be fine,” she said.

Some 27 per cent of respondents also said they expect business travel spending to decrease as well.

Long-term concerns

A third of business travel buyers said their companies have either changed, or are considering changing, policies regarding travel to or from the US, the report showed.

Some 6 per cent said their companies had relocated events from the US to another country.

“From an APAC perspective, and certainly from a European perspective, maybe even LATAM, there’s the opportunity to be the source of where these meetings take place,” Neufang said. “There are many other opportunities to be a winner in this trade game.”

Business travel professionals expressed several concerns about the potential for the long-term impact caused by decisions of the Trump Administration this year, led by worries over business travel costs (54 per cent) and problems processing visas (46 per cent).

Global airfares, however, are slightly down — about $US17, or 2.2 per cent year-to-date — according to FCM Consulting, a division of the business travel company FCM Travel.

Not all ‘doom and gloom’

Nevertheless, the global business travel market is still on track to top $US1.6 trillion by the end of 2025, Neufang said.

However, she said that’s only “if the last 100 days don’t impact negatively everywhere”.

By 2028, the Global Business Travel Association expects, that number will cross the $US2tr mark, she said. She noted that while business travel volumes haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels, business travel spending fully recovered in 2024, partly as a result of inflation.

But she said the trade war initiated by the Trump Administration could spell a bout of new business trips.

“During times of trade wars, business travel may actually increase for at least a period of time — for new partners to be found [and] new markets to be built,” she said. “You lose a customer, you need to find another one. So I think that perspective doesn’t mean all doom and gloom for us.”

However, if tariffs remain elevated, “There will definitely be an impact to U.S. travel … But I think Europe, Asia, Europe to Asia, Asia to Europe. I think anywhere to Africa, all of those are probably fine.”

Leisure travel to the United States has fallen in 2025. International visitor spending is projected to drop 4.7 per cent from 2024, representing some $8.5 billion for the U.S. travel industry, in a year revenues were once widely expected to grow.

CNBC